Introduction
I am going to cover almost 18 years of my experience in marketing in 15-20 minutes. I will try. Okay, now we have already talked about strategy. We have seen the strategy which has to be followed. Great strategy, both of you gave amazing strategy. And Kunal bhai is amazing.I wanted to talk to you about something which is not a specific strategy. And generally what happens is when you become 44-45 years old, then you want to talk less about strategy. Then you want to talk about the issues in the market which actually make you successful.
Have you seen Mahabharata? Has anyone read it? Have you read it? Everyone has seen it because it was a serial. Which character is your favorite in Mahabharata? A bit louder.Karan, okay.Arjun.And Pitamah.You don’t like Pitamah? Good.Okay.How about Abhimanyu? He was the most beautiful character, right? He was the most beautiful character. But he went in the wrong direction. So, my 15 minutes will shake you a bit. Am I allowed to do that? It is important to give a reality check. Because the stock market is Mahabharata. It is Mahabharata. You are actually fighting for your survival. You are fighting for your principles.
And who are you fighting against? Who are you fighting against? Sorry, come back. A bit louder.Okay.So, good people are on the side of good people and bad people are on the side of bad people. And bad people don’t consider themselves bad. They think they are right. And good people obviously think they are right. We are so many people here. There are almost 5000 people. So, ultimately, who are we fighting against? We are fighting against those people who have more money, more information and a better network.
About Vivek Bajaj
I will tell you a bit about my career. You will get an idea about why I am talking to you. When I did Chartered Accountancy, I told my father that I wanted to do a sales job. My father said, are you mad? After doing CA, do you want to do sales? I thought, no, let’s do something else. After doing sales, you do accounting, back office jobs, everything. So, I went to do sales. I didn’t enjoy doing sales. So, I said, let’s try trading. Unfortunately, my father is from a trading background. So, fortunately, I belong to a generation that has trading in the blood. So, I started trading.
Talking about his Experience :
I did a trade in which someone gave me the call option of ITC instead of put. Think about it. I wanted to sell the call option, but he gave me the put option at the same price. So, did I make money or not? Did I make money or not? If I get a put option at the price of a call, will I make money or not? I made 25 lakhs.I was very happy. I made 25 lakhs in one trade. But I was very sad. Because the person who made the money made a clerical error. He sold the call option instead of the put option. What was his mistake? He understood everything. But there was an error of omission. So, as a trader, initially, you see a lot of price inefficiency.
What is a stock market?A stock market is a place where resourceful people, knowledgeable people, and talented people will make probably more money than not-so-talented people. Yes or no? Here, there is a topper of IIT Delhi. There is a topper of IIM Ahmedabad. Here, there is a commerce graduate from Delhi. All of them came to do one thing. What is that? They came to make money. Have you heard of anyone who came to lose money in the market?
There are 5000 people here. Everyone has a single agenda. Sir, tell me how to make money. You are only 5000. There are 5 crore people in the market with a single-point agenda. That money has to be made. Nitin Kamat sir tweeted.99% of people have not beaten the FD. What is new in this? Take out the history of mankind. Only 1% of people have been successful to date.99% of people have lived an average life. Yes or no? So we have to become a part of the 1% club, right?Yes?So there is a potential in 5000 people that you can become a part of 1% club. Because you have taken the effort to come here. This is an effort. We gave you the effort to tell you and you took the effort to come here. But then none of you will become. Maybe 1% of this 5000. Anant said that more will become. But I say that 1% of this 5000 is the people who will earn more than 10 crore a year. How much is 1% of 5000?50 people. Now think aloud. Can you become that 50 people?
Okay, let me go back to my story. So in 2006, I started with commodities. Why did I start with commodities? Because this gold and silver used to excite me. Somehow it used to excite me. How fascinating is this instrument? This price of a piece of gold. What is it trying to tell? It’s an art. It’s an art. Why is the price of a piece of gold 55,000? Why is it 50,000? It’s an art that I was trying to decode. Like art why is the price of art so high? Have you ever thought of the market like this? Have you ever thought that the market is an art? Have you ever thought about it? Why is this price so high? Have you ever talked about the price? Have you ever tried to talk to the stock? Why are you trading at this price? Why are you not below it? Why are you not above it? Have you ever tried to build a relationship with the price? In options, we have a lot of tools that will tell the relationship. Delta, gamma, theta.
There are a lot of things that will teach us to decode relationships. But ultimately, the connection with the market, with the price is very important. So I did that and it took me two years. It took me two years when I could say that I became a consistent, profitable trader. Now how many of you are here with less than two years of experience in the market? Come on, show me your hand.Okay.Less than one year of experience in the market.Okay.That’s a reasonable number. So take my benchmark, two years. You have to stay in the market for two years before you become a consistent, profitable trader. It is not about making money this month and next month losing money. Because expenses are fixed month on month.Whether you want to buy a new phone or pay someone at home. So you have to earn money every month with bread and butter. That should be our intention. So it will take two years.I did commodity, I did currency. After that came technology.
In 2008, along trading was introduced. Now we are chartered accountants, we don’t know the T of technology. What do you do? You collaborate. You collaborate with people who understand the technology and you work together. So high-frequency trading, low-frequency trading. I did a lot of things that the market needed at that time. And it took me two years to evolve. the market. Do you agree? Who introduces the change?SEBI.Industrial First it came in futures, then the futures market stopped. Why did spread trading increase in options? Because margin benefit was introduced by the exchange 3 years ago. Remember, as the market’s microstructure changes, you also have to evolve.
when you go from here, it cannot be the only strategy. The strategy will work, but my experience is that the same strategy stops working after 2-3 years. Because everyone knows how the money will be made if everyone knows. How is it possible? Then there will be a line of billionaires in India. Then why is Mukesh Ambani doing Jio? He will do trading. If money is made from strategy, then consistently, no. It is made, but you have to evolve. When my kids were born in 2013, I used to do trading from 9 am to 12 pm. Commodity, equity, currency.Madness.
Obviously, I was much younger.But when my kids were born, I realized what life I am living.I don’t want to live this life.I want to give time to my kids. That led to change in my thought process.At every stage of your life, you will have to change.You will have to change.And you have to embrace the change.And you embrace change when you come to events like this regularly.You listen to people’s perspectives.Alright? You agree?Now let’s talk about trading strategy.I think I have probably 4 minutes. Trading strategy.When I realized in 2013 that I want to change the tangent.I can’t do what I am doing. Trading all day.I studied a lot.I thought of a lifelong theory.Evergreen theory.That is Relative Strength Theory.
What is Relative Strength Theory? Relative Strength Theory is very simple.Horse race is going on.And who will give the money? Number one horse will give.And we have to catch number one horse.I am not talking about index trading.Obviously, there are experts here who trade bank, Nifty, Nifty regularly.So I don’t want to talk about it.But yes I want to talk about stocks. Because I think big wealth creation will be from stock trading.Especially if you are doing index trading.And if the market hour increases.If it becomes 5, 9.5, 12.Then it will be very difficult to make money in index trading.Case study US markets.It is very difficult to make money in Dow and Nasdaq futures trading.So stocks trading, yes. Relative Strength Theory, yes. The theory has also evolved as the market asked me to evolve.
