How good it feels when we have invested in an asset and the price of that asset is appreciated. You bought land, the appreciation of land is done. You feel very good. You bought stocks, the rate of stocks has increased. You feel very good. Now when we talk about gold and silver, in our Indian tradition, from the beginning, our focuses an investment is placed towards gold and silver. When someone gets married, then also gold jewelry and silver jewelry are given.
So it is equally important to understand gold and silver when you want to multiply your wealth. But everyone has a question in their mind that when should we invest. What will be the right time to invest and the right time will be when a big move is expected. Now when we are talking about silver, you must have read above, silvers ready for a big bull run.
So a big bull run is going to come in silver and you will get a detailed analysis with one and only Mr. Aorta Sheath and Sir is the head of researching Saco. So a head of research, a person who you may have seen on the internet beforehand he regularly does his research. So he is going to share something with you today that can give you a lot of profit.
So Sir, first of all, welcome to our GoSelfmade show. Thank you, thanks a lot. So Sir, your full analysis that silvers ready for a bull run, people will be very excited. There are many people who trade-in commodities, there are investments of people.
So now they would like to understand your research that why are you saying this and what can be their benefit from this. Yes, absolutely. So first of all, I want to tell you that as you said that when there are marriages in the family, then gold and silver comes after jewelry.
So as soon as you said the word family, my father’s face came to my mind. And I have been telling him for the last2-3 months that there is going to be a big bull run in silver and we should see something in gold and silver. Shoe is like that nothing has happened in silver and gold for 10years, so why should we buy silver or gold.
So I am sure that a lot of people, especially our older generation people who have not seen any movement in gold and silver in the last10-12 years, for them today’s blog will be very interesting. We will see that in silver, no, minimum at the minimum, next in 1-2 years, there can be a move of 50% to100%.
So it will be A very long but interesting blog and the things I will tell you in this, I am sure that your viewers will also like it a lot. So yes, we are up for it. Please continue sir. So the first thing in my market, I want to tell you something about the greed and fear cycles that the market is all about these two emotions.
So greed is an emotion, a very big and impactful emotion in the market and the second emotion is fear. So whatever happens in the market, it happens because of these two emotions. And there was a Warren Buffett quote that be greedy when everyone else is fearful and be fearful when everyone else is greedy.
So I think that their whole understanding of the market comes in one simple quote and have presented here through charts how to use that same quote. So the market goes through two phases. One is the greed phase and in the greed phase, generally the prices of the stocks go up and in the fear phase, they either consolidate or fall.
And this is an alternating cycle. So this is not only in silver, but in bitcoin, in Sensex, in many stocks, in many stocks of Sensex, in many sectors, I have studied this in many places and if you want, I can give you many examples where these greed and fear cycles work.
So as you can see on the screen, first of all, the greed and fear cycle of silver is taken out through trial and error method. So it is a 28-month greed and fear cycle, which is an alternating cycle. So this green portion is the greed phase.
This is a 28-monthcycle. And we have plotted this in 2004, since the trading of silver on MCX has started. So almost the period of 28 months which started from April 2004, in that greed phase, silver had a 111% increase.
Then the fear phase of 28 months, immediately after that, silver has fallen by only minus5%. So it was a consolidating phase where it went up and down and ultimately gave negative return of minus 5%. After this, we come to the next greed phase, which started in December 2008, then only silver gave a rally of 284%. After this, the fear phase came, in that minus 25% silver went down, which is again on expected lines. In this greed phase, there was an exception that silver should have increased but it has fallen.
So even though greed and fear cycles are not very popular, but they are very helpful, this is not a holy grail. Sometimes these cycles fail. So this was an exception whereat did not work in the greed phase. But if you come to the next fear phase, then there is a 16% which is again flat returns. After that, the greed phase increased by 74% and after that, the fear phase was flat. In the recent period, there were 0% returns. And now we have entered the greed phase in January. So this next greed phase will continue till April 2025.
So in this period, my expectation is that silver should see a massive bull run. So if you look at the returns of this average greed phase, then there are 108% average returns. So far, we have seen 4 greed phases. In these 4 greed phases, the average returns of silver are 108%. And the returns of the fear phase are minus3%. So far, we have seen1, 2, 3 and 4. We have seen 4 greed phases and 4 fear phases.
And you can see how well silver is running in this cycle. Although we saw a period where there was an exception and it did not work. But that thing will always be there with any system you follow. But on the basis of this, I am not saying that silver will run. I have two more charts because of which I think that silver can come even faster. So if you have any questions in this, Theni can answer the question.
Otherwise, we can move on to the next. So if we have an expectation of 100% returns in the next greed phase, then silver has reached around 70,000. 68, 69percent. And 100% returns mean double. That means 1,40,000 people will get to see silver. If it goes right, then I think hopefully we will see. But even if it does not happen, Theni think see, here we have to understand from this particular discussion that no one can tell the exact targets.
Neither can I find the top, nor can I find the bottom. And no one can do that. So what we have to learn from this particular discussion is that silvers definitely in a massive bull run. So it will go up from here. Now if we take the target on a conservative basis, then maybe around 1 lakh, then definitely can see that we can reach very soon. And if everything else is going well, then maybe who knows, 1,40,000will come.
So I will give one more reason for this, which is in our charts. But what we have discussed is that the international silver’s high in2011 was around $49, which means it was around $50. Now it is around $23. So if international, now the rally was seeing in silver is only because of the depreciation of rupee. If there is a rallying international silver, then there will be a rally in this silver too.
So if international silver doubles from here, then we will see even our silver moving up. Even more than double. Yeah. Let’s understand on the chart, sir, which you have. So the second most important chart that we should see is that dollar and silver. So the dollar here, the line of orange color is dollar index. DXY is dollar index. And the gray line you are seeing, the grayer black line is of silver, international silver.
So these two are inversely correlated. And what you are seeing below, we have plotted their correlation for 52 weeks, which is mostly staying below the zero line, which means it is negative. So if silver goes up, then dollar goes down. If dollar goes up, then silver goes down. So as you can see clearly on this chart that silver is going up and dollar is going down.
So in the dollar, 120, a very big resistance, it has not reached there, it has gone around from113, dollar index. And in silver, we have seen that a rally has started from the level of 18 dollars and we have reached around 24 so far. So weakness in the dollar is a good sign for silver and even gold.
So because of this chart, I feel that there can be a very big increase in silver. And the reason for going below the dollar, there are many reasons for this, but the major reasons inflation going down. So if inflation is going down, then the interest rates of the US will have fewer chances of going up.
So if interest rates stop moving higher, then currency will weaken. And if the currency is weak, then we will see the riskier assets as a result. Emerging markets are also a riskier asset. Silver is a risky asset. So, in these risky assets, risk on trade will start again. And that’s why we are seeing a rally in silver.
So, as we are talking about riskier assets, if we talk about Nifty and Sensex, we can see the same thing on our index. If the dollar goes down, Nifty goes up. So, there is a similar correlation here in some other blogs, we will talk about riskier assets where and if someone wants to understand it in this way,
So, if you are trading, you should understand it. If you trade in commodities, like silver, you can’t ignore the dollar chart. If you see the dollar falling from an important point, you can see the move in silver from there.
You have said a very good thing. Even though you are an equity market trader, you can’t ignore the movements of other big markets. The biggest market in the world is the currency market. After that, there is the bond market, commodities, and finally, the equity market. So, the impact of currency or bond movements definitely comes on equities.
So, even though you are trading options or anything, you are buying equities in the cash market, but it does not mean that you should not track the movement of the outside markets. And one thing is important here, if you understand the commodity market a little, then big moves come here. And a big move means, for a trader, it can be a big money. Big move means big money.
So, if we talk about you trading in Nifty, you trade in and Nifty, you consider the move of half a percent, 1% or 1.5% to be very big. But when they start running, if you see the silver run, if the silver starts running, then 1-2% is nothing. It is like one way. So, if you understand how to catch it, then there is a big money there.
So, we will see in the next chart, when the rally came in silver in 2011, what kind of rally came? And many people may not know that, they may not have seen the traders. So, no one will think that a dull commodity like silver, someone said dull, sir. I need to continue.
Dull means, sir is saying that there were not many returns before, that’s why he is saying dull. So, as I said, my father says, why are you putting money in silver, son? Nothing happens in its, many people believe that silver is a dull commodity, and there is no movement in it.
But when it comes, there is a lot of big movement. So, this is the chart of silver. This is a monthly chart. So, we have plotted this chart since 2005.So, you can see here that in 2006, there was a level of about 15,000. And it has increased 5 times from 15,000. And in 2-3 years, it has hit a high of 75,000.
So, in just 5 years, a commodity like silver has increased 5x. And then this has been a consolidation phase of 11 years. So, I am sure that many traders are aware of cup and handle. But I tell you that when you understand the pattern of cup and handle, then whether you are using it in equity, it is highly important that your time frame is big. This cup and handle does not work so well on small time frames.
The better it is showing you in the 12-year time period, the bigger the time period you will see the cup and handle, the more accurate it will be. So, I am also convinced by this that if you see a cup and handle on a big time frame, then as per technical analysis, you can capture a big move. Sure. So, as you can see here, the resistance line I have plotted above is of around 75,000.
So, I am looking for a monthly close above 75,000 levels. So, the past resistances, the level that has been retested from 2020 to now, or it has gone around a little below that. So, I think once we need a decisive close above that 75,000 levels to say that silver is breaking out and it is moving higher.
But as we saw in the previous two charts, there are many other factors in favor of silver. And the whole boom of EV is coming, you cannot create an electric vehicle without silver. There are many things that are needed in an electric vehicle, so silver is one of them.
And our gadgets, mobile phones, laptops, all of them use silver. So, silver apart from being an investment commodity, it is also a very big industrial commodity. Yes, it is very big. And in this, you will see the consumption of silver increasing in the coming days.
So, that is also one of the major reasons why silver could see big boom. And let me tell you this, when you capture a cup and handle pattern, there is an important question that what can be your potential target?
So, if you are looking at the depth of the cup, then I can see almost from 77,000 to 32,000.If I take the difference of an average of 30,000, then you can see a rally of 30,000 rupees in silver. This can be a potential target.
Do you agree? Yes. So, this is the benefit of capturing the cup and handle. When you master the chart pattern, whatever it is, whether it is your head and shoulder, whether it is your cup and handle, the important chart patterns, if you can see their accuracy, and if you can see more in the big time frame, then you get big moves.
So, one thing we have to keep in mind is that it should not come in a day or two. Yes, obviously. This is a 12-year long pattern. It is not that big even after it is over, but it will take considerable time. As we saw that it is a cycle of 28 months.
So, silver could take maybe 2 years, 2.5 years to reach that1,00,000, 1,40,000 kind of level. But that is what, even if it takes 2, 2.5 years, if you buy from this level, then you can make a lot of money in silver. Right, but definitely before investing, you should do your own analysis.
Absolutely. Now, it is possible that your excitement has increased, that if silver is going to increase, but the question that people will ask, I will ask you that too. What should we do now? So, first I tell you that the person who is here is a semi-registered professional. And now, the questions that people will have in their mind, I will take those questions first, so that you can guide people.
The first question of people will be that if there is a rallying silver, then we have two types of people, one is investors and the others traders. So, the investors who are already investing, and many people are thinking of investing, so according to you, what should they do?
So, the investors have a lot of ways, one of which is actually they can go and buy physical silver. So, many people may not be able to do this, so for them, another very good option is the silver ETF.
So, if you want to buy a silver ETF, then you can buy it for67 rupees. Silver Bees. Silver Bees. So, it is the price of a silver bee for 67 rupees. So, you can buy it very easily. So, I will tell you our portal where you can buy silver bees very easily.
So, as you can see on the screen behind, this is the trading terminal of Sarcomere you will see a watch list on the left side, so I have put silver bees here, you can see the price of silver bees here, it is the price of 67 rupees 52.
So, you can do as much quantity as you want, if you want, you can also do an SIP, it can be a weekly or monthly SIP, and if you want to make a lump sum investment in one shot, then you can do this at the same time. So, I think this is a very convenient way to tap the bull runoff silver.
So, if you see that there is silver of 67, 68000, and someone says that I do not have 67000, but you have 67 rupees or whatever money is in its multiples, then you buy its ETF, if your silver increases, then the rate of ETF will increase.
If we see a 100% bull run from here, minimum, if there is an expectation, then the money you put in it, suppose you bought an ETF of 10,000, and you bought an ETF of 10,000 once, or you may have done SIP, you are buying an ETF of 10,000 every month, so if the price of silver increases, the rate of silver will increase, then your investment will also increase, and this is a good way of compounding your money as well.
Absolutely, this is a very easy way, anyone can do it. Means you can buy silver in 67 rupees, and if you are a trader, I will not say that you can buy silver tomorrow itself, but you know the broad trend of silver, that it is on the upside.
So you have to do one thing, that you don’t have to take short trades, the second thing you have to do is, whatever your system is, simple, whether it is a moving average crossover system, whenever you are getting long signals in that system, considering all the other factors as well, you can take a good risk management and position sizing approach, and you can also do long in silver, if you are a trader who has the capacity to take risk, then you can trade silver in futures. And in fact, now there are options as well.
So if you are interested in commodity, and many people are already trading, so you have the option of futures and options, to trade if you want to capture big moves, so big moves make big money, so as we saw in the starting screen, there are so many ways to benefit from the massive bull run in silver, you can though of many different ways of making a large profit.
Maybe they have got something from this. So there are so many ways. You can take whatever you want. If you want to take physical silver, you can take that. Take ETF, Jewelry, Coins. There are so many things. Even gifting purpose, as we talked about marriage. Give me 100 kgs. Give me 100-200 kgs. Easy. The shades are clean.
What will happen in 100-200 kgs? There is not much. You have a lot of space to keep i.e. am sure that many people must have been inspired by this blog. I have a lot of space. You give me, I will make it. Let me buy first. Then you will take advantage of the bull run.
So our point is that if I put it aside in a way, then the real money in the world of finance is gold and silver. Currency depreciates. Silver and gold depreciate over the years. We have seen that in the coming time, demand and supply are many factors and cycles. You have understood greed and fear today. You understand demand and supply.
So when you understand that you are putting your money in such thing that does not depreciate. When fear comes in the market, then the price of their commodities increases anyway. Especially of gold and silver. And this is the real money. So if you are investing in real money, I think you are on the right way. Absolutely.
So now this is just about silver. Apart from this, a lot of different investment ideas, trading opportunities keep coming in the market. Our research team keeps putting it on our upland it comes in the smack feeds on a regular basis. So as you can see on your screen right now, this is my samco feeds screen.
Where we are on a regular basis, on a daily basis, whatever developments are happening in the market, Research and insights are put in it, which you can consume very easily in a short time.