Introduction
So hello everyone, welcome back to your channel. Well, nowadays you are seeing that the market is continuously falling. Now you must be having a lot of questions in your mind. Being an investor, you must be having a lot of questions that I already have a portfolio. I have invested in Indian shares, what should I do now? Should I hold or sell? If your SIPs are running, then you must be having a lot of questions. What should I do with them? Should I make new SIPs from here? Or should I stop these SIPs?
And if you are trading, then you must be having a lot of questions for intraday. You must be having a lot of questions for positional trades. Now you are going to get answers to all those questions, as I told you. And for that, today we have an expert with us. Who after years of experience, who has seen similar market conditions many times before. He is going to answer your questions after his experience.
So sir, the questions I am going to ask you, it will be rapid-fire. And these are not my questions, these are the questions of people who are called retail investors and traders.
The Questions and Their Answers :
Now first of all, people are wondering why the market is falling. This is a very good question. If we talk about Indian markets, if we talk about Nifty, it used to trade at Rs.18,800-18,700. By the end of 2022. But the start of 2023 did not go well. And if we talk about today’s session, we are seeing that it is slipping below Rs.17,000. The main factor of Indian markets falling is not the domestic factor, but the global factors. If we keep tracking the news globally, we keep finding out about the indication market sentiments. If we talk about the past few days, the banking crisis that is being talked about by the US.
Like we heard in the previous sessions, there was a SVB bank, there was a crisis. In today’s session, we saw a Deutsche Bank news. So there are some factors that are not supporting the market like a rally. We are very positive about the long-term view of Indian markets. But in the short term, we are seeing pain. So in today’s blog, we will try to correlate these fundamental factors with the technicals. And we will try to understand the mood, sentiment, factors, and levels of Indian markets in the coming sessions. So we will try to answer each and every query regarding the levels and trend of the market. So will you bring the technicals and levels on the chart so that we can talk about the levels? Yes, I will share my screen with you. I have opened the chart of Nifty Index.
I will try to explain the daily chart in the time frame.We discussed at the start of the blog that the highs in the Indian markets in December 2022 were around Rs.18,000-18,000. From there, the market is currently slipping down below Rs.17,000. So we will try to understand the fundamental factors that are rolling out in the market. And how can we take the Indian market in the coming sessions. I will use a simple indicator here which is used from the perspective of swing trading. Which is called Fibonacci Retracement Levels.
If we talk about Fibonacci Retracement Levels, if we match the top level from the bottom of a big swing, this indicator will find out the levels which play out as a support and resistance level for the market. The way the bear is seen in the rally market, if we talk about June 2022, the market used to trade at around Rs.15,200.
And we saw a good run-up from there at Rs.18,900.So if I match the top level from the bottom of a big swing, which was taken by Nifty from June 2022 to December 2022, the Fibonacci Retracement Level comes out to be around Rs.17,050. And we saw that in the past few sessions, the market tried to take support. Because there is a simple thumb rule of Fibonacci Retracement Levels. After a big swing, 50% correction is considered a healthy correction. But if the market is still seeing selling pressure after taking 50% correction, then it starts moving towards its next level which is 61.8% of the Fibonacci Retracement Level.
According to the current levels, it is around Rs.16,600. If you minimize the chart, people will be able to see the numbers of the levels. So if you see 50% correction in the market according to the Fibonacci Retracement Levels, then it is considered a healthy correction. And if we talk about the current level, the Fibonacci Retracement The level of this big swing is around Rs.17,050. If we look at the current level, it is around Rs.17,038-Rs.17,050. And this is the reason why Nifty tried to take support here, which is again not happening in the market as of now.
In today’s session, we saw that Nifty was again slipping below Rs.17,000. In fact, it was closing.
So what indication can we take from here that the market will start moving towards its next level, i.e. the Fibonacci Retracement Level, which is 61.8% of the Fibonacci Retracement Level. Which approximately lies at Rs.16,600. So Rs.16,600 could be a make or break level for Nifty moving forward as per the Fibonacci Retracement Level of a big swing seen from Rs.15,200 to Rs.18,900. So according to now, I feel that in the coming weeks and sessions, there is a little more pain left in the market. We have seen a closing of Rs.16,950. Rs.16,600 will be a level that will work as a make or break for the market. If it breaks from here, then you can see that the market can go towards Rs.16,000.
Absolutely! Perfectly!
So what happens is, Mr. Pushkar, I would like to explain one more thing to our viewers. Many viewers will ask, can the market take support after slipping below Rs.61.8? The market is a thumb rule of Fibonacci. As I explained, 50% correction is considered a healthy correction. But if that correction slips below Rs.61.8, then a bearish move in the market, which is seen to be a mount-on, which actually takes the market towards the next level, which is below Rs.16,000. See, Mr. Pushkar, I will not try to scare the clients. I will talk about facts and figures. I will share the technical levels that are coming up in the charts. So at every level, we have to try to understand the sentimentsof the market. What kind of news is coming? How is the market behaving?What kind of FIIs numbers are coming?
After every session, the numbers are released in the evening. Have the FIIs numbers started coming positive or not? These are early indications for the market to change its trend at any time. Absolutely! If FIIs are selling regularly, then you will see that the market is in a downtrend. Which is not good for the market. If you want to catch the reversal early, then you can pay attention to these things. As Mr. Shetty said. So Mr. Shetty, people are understanding that the market is in a downtrend. Now, this data is very good for positional traders and swing traders.
Which you have told people. But now, those who are trading daily, trading intraday, what would you like to tell them, how can they trade in the market? Absolutely! Mr Pushkar, the way the market behavior is goingon, there is a lot of wicks. If we talk about volatility, it has increased a lot in the market. So here, we try to see the downtrend in the market. Every time there is a selling pressure. We try to make money in intraday options. So for that, a lot of indicators are already available in the market. But as an SMC, if we talk about it, in the name of SMC auto-tender, I will share my screen with you.
So we have a tool like this. In the name of SMC auto-tender, we have used some indicators Which actually plays out a role as a leading indicator. Because if we talk technically, there are a lot of indicators available. Likewise, you have heard the names RSI, Stock as Stake, MACD.But all those indicators are lagging indicators which actually follow the price action in the market. But if we talk from the derivative point of view, there are some data available in the market which we can understand without looking at the chart. What is the trend of the market? If we want to trade as an option player, do we have to take caller put?
I am talking about intraday trading. And on the other hand, without looking at the chart, we can understand Where is the support and resistance of the market or where is the breakout and breakdown level in the market? So if we talk about the data, it is coming in the auto-tender. If we talk about today’s data, we can see a big fall in the market. Although the market was seen to be consolidated for a long time. But if you see the indication continuously, I am getting a sell signal in Nifty.
The best plus point is that the data we show in this auto-tender, we display this data for you every 5 minutes. What are the positions in the market every 5 minutes? Is there a buying side or selling side? You can understand this by doing data analysis. What kind of direction is going to come in the market today? What kind of trend is going to come? So clearly, from 2 to 3.30 pm, we were getting a continuous sell signal in the market. If we talk about VWAP signal, it was a continuous sell signal. If we talk about option signal, it was a continuous sell signal.
So it is a simple thing, even if we don’t want to see the technical charts, or I don’t have time to see technical charts, then from the point of view of data analysis, I get a signal that what should I trade in the market. Either I should trade call or put. If there is a sell signal, that clearly means you have to buy put and work. That means you have to play Mandy in the market. There are 2-3ways to play Mandi.Either you can sell call, you can sell Nifty future short or you can buy put and work which you need to pay just a premium amount. Even you can make strategies. We are promoting strategies that you can make strategies and work. So this is your Nifty, PANG Nifty’s data. If people see this data, they will get guidance that at least which side should not trade. Exactly. Once you said that we get support resistance, so you clear that support resistance as well.
How people understand support resistance. There are many things in your software and many things are not clear to people. There are many things in it but how will people know until there is no information on it. Here we talked about support and resistance. I can clearly understand this by seeing the signal that the option signal is on the sell side. VWAP signal is on the sell side. But how will I understand this by seeing support and resistance data, so for that I will open Nifty OI charts. Nifty OI charts are open interest charts which we represent as bar graphs. You can see red bars and green bars on my screen. These are the options open interest data which actually rolls out as support and resistance for the market.
If we talk about Nifty, this is the options data of today. There bar on 17000 is open interest which is built up in puts which plays out as a support for the market. On the other side, the green bars are open interest on the call side which actually plays a role as a resistance for the market. So it is a simple fund where maximum open interest will works support and resistance.
So you are saying that where you can see the biggest green bar, the biggest resistance is there. Yes, exactly. And the red bar is the biggest support. Yes, exactly. But I can see that the resistance has also come to 17000.Yes, exactly. There is a reason for that. The biggest plus points that you get USB in this software. It gives you analysis in the live market on what level, whereas the support and where is the resistance. So in the live market, when it will refresh in every 5 minutes, you will see that there is maximum call open interest on 17100.
There is a green bar which is actually playing out as resistance for the market. So the simple logic here is that the market will not go above17100 in today’s session. Because the big players have added maximum open interest on 17100.So this is a simple logic. So I have understood that I don’t have to buy the call of 17100.So there is a simple fund here. There is maximum open interest on 17100 in the calls which Isa green bar which is actually a big resistance for the marketing today’s session.
On the other hand, there is a red baron 17000 which is actually support for the market. On the basis of comparison, the green bar has a longer length than the red bar. So there is a simple fund. There is a signal of sell in the market. We will give you a signal of sell here which we showed you the option signal on the 5-minute interval. We provide the same signal here. Now there is a simple fund that if there is a sell signal here, then I don’t have to buy and work at all.
If I have to buy, then I should focus on put buy because put buy means I want to play in the market. So below 17100 and above 17100, I don’t have to focus on taking the call. Here many traders become greedy that I am getting a call of 17100, I will purchase it here. But what happens is that after developing such a big resistance, you don’t see a breakout of 17100 in the market. The reason is that the most open interest was created at that level by big players. I will tell you about today’s matter. I was in the gym today and I got a call. My friend was very known and he said that I have taken a call position.
I asked which call did you take? He said that the market was at 17095 and I said that I have taken call position. I said yes and he asked why did I take it? He said that it was my analysis. I said that you know how to see the option chain on NSE.I said open it. I was on the phone and I was on the treadmill. I said open it. I said see how much is the OI above 17100.I saw that the OI is very high.
I said that when the OI is so high, do you think that the market will cross 17100? He said what should I do? I said that you should exit according to meshed said that I am losing. I said that it is a good thing that you do it now if you are still losing. Because what will happen after this is a big thing. While talking on the phone, the market broke 40 points. So this is basically how correctly the data works. I said that how are you trading without seeing the data? You cannot trade without seeing the data. You have to see i.e. said that if you had taken a position here, I don’t know what your analysis was saying. But either your quantity should have been very small and the stop loss should have been very small.
Because there are a lot of chances of reversal from there. If you had taken a reversal trade from there, it would have been better. I didn’t guide you on what trade to take. But according to me, you should have left. The rest is your choice. The money is yours, the loss is yours, the profit is yours. So this data sometimes saves you from big losses. Absolutely right. In the market, it is important to save money. Retail investors make a mistake of attracting cheap things. Everyone is saying that you can buy 17100 coins at a cheap price. But I don’t have a reason to buy. The biggest resistance is 17100.
Until the market holds on to17100, there can be no breakout in the market. Even if it goes up to 105-110, there are chances of reversal. Until the seller is not running away from there. If you see the change in open interest here, it will be seen below the OI concentration. So it is important to see the change in open interest. If there is an addition of green, that’s a problem. Now there is an addition of 17000.The seller has come at 17000.Now there is less chance of going above 17000.
That would have happened later in the live market. Today I went to the gym very comfortably. Because looking at the data, you understand so many things. If you are in a right position, then you don’t have to think. But people will panic if they don’t see the data. Rightly said. So the green bar you see in the morning in the market, this was added in the live market. When the market opened, there was no green bar at 17000.The red bar was very big. The reason was that the market was sitting at 17000.But the put writers were trapped. This is the reason why they changed their position in the calls.
So changing the position and managing the position is as important as trading in the market. If people understand trading by looking at the data, then it will be beneficial for them. So Shetty ji, show us the same in Bank Nifty. If I click on Bank Nifty, then within a fraction of a click, the chart of Bank Nifty opens. The green bar you see in the morning was very small. The red bar was 39500.If someone follows the technical charts, then Bank Nifty tried to hold 39500.It couldn’t break. This indicates that 39500 will not break. But as soon as the selling pressure came, I saw that the put writers were trapped. The call writers also added their positions.
This was an early indication that if I have a call, I don’t want to sit in the call, I want to leave. I should change my position and make a position in the put. So Shetty ji rightly said that the data that is being formed in the market in real time is very important to track. Especially for those who are trading in intraday. Because you have to understand what is happening in intraday.
You are catching the price action on one side, which is very good. But where the money is being invested, the OI that is being buildup is not happening. There is actual money involved. So you need to understand this.
Thank you so much for We will keep in touch with you for the questions that people your time, Shetty jig. have. Definitely, and thank you so much once again for calling me onto your channel. In fact, I would like to give a guide to people here. If you see the data that is being formed in the market, it is clearly visible that there is no speed. If you see the market going up, then you can understand it from the data point of view.
Is it actually getting long in the market or is it short covering? So when you start understanding these things, I basically want that whether people benefit or not, it doesn’t matter to me. How much you earn or how much you earn, it doesn’t matter. The loss should be minimized. So if the loss is less, then sooner or later it will be beneficial. Our motive is clear that you should keep your loss protected.
