Well, one thing is clear if you are reading this blog, then you want to know that in the coming days, where you will see Nifty and Bank Nifty. So I will tell you first that in this blog, we are going to do the prediction of Nifty and Bank Nifty and we are going to tell you that according to our analysis, where Nifty and Bank Nifty will be.
Now, what is more important than this is that it is not our motive to tell you only figures. How are we doing the analysis in such a way that you can also see the same things in the market daily and do the analysis yourself. You can predict Nifty and Bank Nifty yourself. Thesis more important for us.
So it is more important to teach and learn for you rather than just getting the Nifty prediction We have a professional charted accountant with us, who is a semi-registered professional and he is going to do market analysis with you today. So here we go with Mr. Nitin Muraoka.
Today is the time when we can discuss the entire scenario of the global market with you. From here, Nitin is with us today and we will discuss the prediction of Nifty. In fact, we are going to clear your concepts so that next time you can catch a big move yourself. So Nitin, here we go. Thank you Pushkar ji. The objective of today’s blog is to identify where the market will move from in the September expiry.
What are the logics to catch it? What data can you see? What is the next scenario in the market? Is the market going to go up or down? We are going to do an analysis with the entire scenario and data. Weill analyze the world market, Nifty, Bank Nifty, Volatility Index. We are going to cover all these points today.
Normally, when you are trading, you should have an overall view of the overall trend of the market. After that, we come to the intraday trend. So what we are discussing today, we will try to find out what is the scenario of the market and where the market can go in the next 10-15 days.
So I will tell you the end of the scenario that I am going to tell you. Then I will tell you from the starting that why we are feeling it. But the end of it is that the market is moving towards 18,300in the September expiry. Now we are at 17,800. That means a 500-point rally should be formed in the next 10-15 days.
Now why should this rally be formed and on what basis are we trying to forecast that the rally will be formed. We will discuss that scenario in the next 15-20 minutes. That will be a learning point for you. On what basis are we assuming that the market will come to 18,300 which is around 17,800. This is very important for you to learn.
To analyze this, we have used 3-4 chart patterns. First, we will use the Nasdaq chart. Second, we will use the S&P Wicks chart. Third, we will use the weekly charts of Nifty, Bank Nifty and Indian Volatility Index. We will analyze these 5 things. First, I have opened the Nasdaq chart. This is the weekly chart of Nasdaq.
If you remember, the last time Nasdaq was around 13,200. We made blog and the forecast was that Nasdaq will have a correction. From there, we have a3-week correction. We made a blog around 12,900. From there, Nasdaq fell to around11,400. We got a correction of around 13,400 points which is approximately6-7% correction.
Now, what will be the next move from here? If you see, we can see 3 weekly red candles in the market. First, I will show you the top. There was a reversal candle. Hold on, your cursor is not moving. Hold on, I will take an arrow. We saw some reversals on this candle. In the reversal, you can see that the weekly red candle was a reversal candle because it has a long tail.
We will compare these 2 candles. The previous weekly candle, the green candle, the last prices 13,047. The candle after this, the one with the down arrow, has a closing of 12,705. You can call this the reversal candle of the previous candle because it has a tail and closed around low. From here, we analyzed that there is a weekly reversal signaling the market.
There can be a correction. After that, Nasdaq had a correction of around 7%. If you see from the Indian market, there was a Nifty of around18,000 and it fell to 17,200. Although the bounce was sharp in Nifty and it came back to 17,800, we got an immediate correction from 18,000 to 17,200.
In Nasdaq, the correction is around 11,470. Now the question is, can we get a reversal sign from here or not? We can see that there was a correction of 3 weeks.
Now, the current week that closed, today is Saturday, Friday, this week closed. Now you can see this green candle. It is the same as the one above, it is making a downward trend. Below, there is a strong candle, we call it an engulfing candle.
The one above was a reversal candle. Reversal means that there was a tail and the market closed ate lower level. The weekly close was at a low. You can call it a reversal candle. But what we are seeing now is a kind of engulfing candle. Engulfing means that the low of the previous candle and the high of the previous candle, both have a high-low.
The current week candle, the green candle that you can see, it has crossed it. It broke both the low and the high. Whenever there is a candle formation like this, we call it abolish formation. After the market correction, if it is around support, then it is a bullish kind of scenario.
This means that in Nasdaq, the top-down approach, the most important index, there is a sign of a reversal. This means that there should be a rally in Nasdaq and Nasdaq should go back to 12,900, which is now 12,100.
If there is a rally in Nasdaq, which stocks will increase? IT stocks will increase. Which will increase in IT? TCS will increase the most, Infosys will increase. That’s why we have been seeing for 2-3 days that there is buying in these stocks at a lower level.
So you should focus on IT stocks in terms of trading. There are many stocks that have fallen. The way there is a reversal in Nasdaq, TCS, Infosys, all these stocks can run at 4-5% in this expiry. If you trade on these options, then you can get a very good profit. Because the expiry is also moving towards the expiry, so the premiums will also be reduced.
If there is a big move in the low premium, then you can get good money. So this was my point. Ultimately, we follow the world market. If Nasdaq falls, we fall. If Nasdaq rises, we rise. It is important that we are relatively stronger than Nasdaq or stronger than the world market. So here, we are not worried about the world market.
There are signs of reversal. So we don’t need to worry about the world market. Now you must have understood that there is a sign of reversal in Nasdaq. There is a positive scenario. Now we will confirm this with other indicators. What is the scenario there? In Nasdaq, we saw that there is an engulfing candle. This candle engulfed the previous week.
So this is a strong bullish indicator. Now we will confirm this with other indicators. What are the other indicators? We are getting a similar kind of confirmation. Like in the previous blog, we analyzed the market like this when it was at the top. And we got a correction from there. Now when the market is giving a reversal, we are analyzing the same chart patterns again.
Now here, I have shown you the WIX, S&P Fixit is the fear and greed indicator of the Nasdaq or the world market, the American market. We analyze that. And in this, you see, last week when this green candle was formed, we made a blog that there is a possibility of a correction in Nasdaq. We are getting a similar kind of hope because of the fear.
This was a green candle and the next candle was also up. But in the current scenario, this weekly candle of volatility index is a complete reversal. And this reversal is stronger than the previous two weeks. When we were going up, we were going slowly.
But when the reversal happened in the weeks, this reversal candle engulfed the previous two weeks. The panic in the market was over. This indicates that there is no problem in Nasdaq and Dow Jones. American markets should increase from here. We don’t know what will happen on the news flow.
But the charts and data we are seeing indicate that Nasdaq endow Jones should increase from here. Because we have seen a sudden drop in the volatility index. I would like to tell the audience that VIX works in an inversely proportional way. If VIX falls, the chances of the market to rise increase. And if VIX increases, like the green candle, the market has also corrected a little.
This is information for new people that you can track Vixen were talking about S&P VIX. Sir, please continue. VIX is a fear and greed indicator. When there is a lot of panic in the market, fear increases. People’s panic increases. VIX also increases at that time. If there is no panic in the market and the market is comfortable, VIX falls.
This is why the contrarian opinion; the inverse correlation is with the index. Now we have understood that Nasdaq is fine, there is nothing to worry about. We have compared it with VIX. S&P VIX is also fine. There is no fear. Now let’s move to the Indian markets. In which we will see three things.
We will understand Nifty’s long-term charts, i.e., weekly charts. We will understand the monthly charts. Because our objective here is to understand the overall trend. We are not focusing on intraday. Then we will see the overall trend of Bank Nifty. We will understand which is the leader in both. Bank Nifty is leading or Nifty is leading.
If I find out that Bank Nifty is leading, then you can make a profit by trading intraday in Bank Nifty. Then we will understand India’s fear and greed indicator, Indian VIX. What signal are we getting from there? Let me bring you to the charts of Nifty. We have weekly charts of Nifty.
In the last blog, we analyzed on the same chart patterns. You can see that a resistance line was drawn. This is a weekly resistance line.If we see the low from there, it was 17250. Approximately, we got a sudden correction of 500 points.
Now we see that after completing this correction, Nifty is bouncing strongly. It is trying to break out by engulfing the previous two weeks. The trend line we see is trying to break out by Nifty. Now you understand that Nifty is leading. Nifty is running fast and Nasdaq is supporting it. Nasdaq says that it will go up.
S&P VIX says that it has no problem and is not afraid of the market going up. The leader, Nifty, is running and will run even more. In the weekly charts, we see a strong reversal. The market has come up from the previous two weeks. It is trying to break the trend line. If I take out the target, the next resistance level of 1800-300is at least in this expiry.
The expiry of September, which will expire on 29th September, because it is a long expiry. It has 5 weeks. Normally, there are 4 weekly expiries in a month. But the September expiry is of 5 weeks. The target we are running is that Nifty can easily go up to 1800-300.What should be your strategy in the intraday? You should buy and dip in the intraday.
In the last blog, we made a correction and we raised the sell-on. There was a correction in the market. Now your view should be buy and dip. For the last 2-3 days, we have seen the market going down and then bouncing. You should trade in such scenarios and focus on call options and not put options.
The target we are running in the September expiry is 1800-300.When the targets come, we will come back with a blog and analyze the scenario. This blog can be very important because we are making this blog at a point where there is a lot of confusion in the market.
People are stuck in this volatility and they are not able to understand whether the market is going up or down. But the points we are discussing can be an idea to give them an idea of how we can move.
We have seen the Nifty scenario and there is a scenario of adrenaline breakout. If the market goes above 100 on Monday, there will be a clear trend line break out.
We will cross 18000 and come to 1800-300.I have already indicated the sector leading.IT will get leadership and banking will also get leadership. Nifty has two pairs, IT and Bank Nifty. Let’s understand Bank Nifty. First, we will open the weekly charts. Bank Nifty has already broken out. We were discussing whether the trend line of Nifty is going to break out or not.
If you analyze Bank Nifty, you will see that this is the weekly candle of Bank Nifty. This is the weekly candle which means that Bank Nifty has broken out this week. Bank Nifty has closed at around 40,415. This means that it has broken out above 40,000.
Bank Nifty is running and has broken out. The all-time high of Bank Nifty is around 41,829. I think that we will cross this all-time high in the September expiry. We are ready to go towards 42,000. If Bank Nifty increases by 1500 points, how much will Nifty increase?
At least 432 points. Bank Nifty will support Nifty. We are also talking about IT.IT means Infosys and TCS. These two are the biggest in IT. Bank Nifty has 4 shares of SDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Bank. If these 4 shares are combined, Nifty will automatically start running. We are seeing an early breakout in Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty is leading.
If you compare Nifty with Bank Nifty, Bank Nifty is a leading index compared to Nifty. Bank Nifty has a weightage of 30-33% in Nifty. It is stronger than Nifty. If you consider Bank Nifty as the target, I think that around 41,500, that is, a rally of 1000-1200 points should be founding this expiry. Let’s see this in monthly.
We understood the weekly. If you see the monthly breakout, Bank Nifty has already taken the lead. I have drawn a trend line of monthly candles in front of you. If you see this, you will get clarity that the monthly candlepin the market has broken out in Bank Nifty. Now the question in your mind is whether this will be a false breakout.
We see breakouts in Bank Nifty. Sometimes, the breakouts are false. But if you see from Nasdaq, this will not be a false breakout. Why? Because Nasdaq is bouncing after the correction. There is a bounce there. If there is a bounce in Nasdaq, can the market fall? It will not fall. It cannot fall.
That is why this breakout cannot be false. Because Nasdaq is ready to bounce after the fall. S&P Wicks has engulfed two weeks. All indicators are positive from the world market. So this breakout does not seem to be a false breakout. So there is a very high probability that we will go to 4,500 in Bank Nifty and 18,300 in Nifty.
Now let’s conclude this quickly. Let’s compare this with the Indian volatility index. Like we matched Nasdaq and S&P Wicks. We will compare Nifty and Bank Nifty. Let’s match up with the Indian volatility index. The volatility index of this week is 17.71.
It is closing. If the VIX is below 20, then there is no need to panic. If the VIX is in the range of 17-18, then you can consider its a bull market. You can consider it as a bullish scenario. Point number 1, the VIX has gone below 18-19, 17-18. There is no problem of high volatility.
Secondly, if you look at the candlestick, it is a reversal candle. The previous week’s low has been broken by the VIX. The previous week’s low was 17.25. If you look at this week’s low, it is 16.54. The VIX is in the range of 16-17, which is a comfortable range. The VIX is also saying that there is no fear in the market.
There is a scenario of fast volatility in the market. If you combine all these things, you will get confidence from within. What should I trade in the market? The market is on the side of fast volatility. We should do buy on dip. We should avoid puts. We should trade in calls. If you are trading intraday, then you can use all the intraday tools.
But the indicators that we discussed in this blog, you must have got clarity in your mind. What scenario can be formed? What are the reasons that we think that the market will comet 18-300 Nifty and Bank Nifty will come to 41-500 Nifty?
Why are we thinking that this is a valid breakout and not a false breakout? Looking at all these things, you can also strengthen your analysis. You can do learning. I think that you must have learned something from the things we discussed.
You must have got an idea and perspective that the September expiry of the market, where can it close? I understood that people can do buy on dips in IT and bank stocks. If you take the name of Infosys, TCS, then it will be major IT stocks. If you take the name of HDFC, Exis, ICICI, Kotak, then if there is a dip, it can be a buying opportunity.
If you are investing, and I understood that if you trade in options, then avoid put options. Can the buy on dip concept work in that too? You will not get a dip in IT. Because IT is already in a very oversold condition. And there is a bounce in Nasdaq, so you will get a move fasten It’s don’t wait for a big dip in IT.
If there is a slight breakout or positive scenario, then you can take IT. There your risk-reward ratio will be better. Because it is already corrected and is around its support. So TCS will be the leader in that. You can focus on both TCS and Infosys. In banking, I saw that Exis Bank broke out yesterday.
Axis Bank can lead from here. There is good data in ICICI Bank too. There is a lot of OI buildup. So ICICI Bank, these two mid-cap bankside-cap is the front line, these two small banks are trying to come out price wise. SDFC Bank is giving support.
But if you compare in all three banks, the best breakout has happened in Exis Bank. ICICI Bank is also ready to take a breakout at all-time high. It has gone above 900.You can focus on both these stocks. You can focus on IT and ICICI. Sir, please show the breakout of Axis Bank.
I can see the breakout clearly. People will understand. One second. I have opened the chart of Axis Bank. This is the weekly chart. In the weekly chart, you can see a clear and strong breakout. The special thing is that Bank Nifty did not have a big breakout much as the stocks in it. Axis Bank is a strong breakout.
You can see that the highs are closing. Exis Bank’s target is 800-810.If you look at the daily charts, you can see that it is moving up strongly from 3 days. It has come from 740 to 780.There is no need to worry. It will go up to 800-810 easily. If we talk about Bank Nifty going up to 4500, it can go up to 820.
I will show you ICICI Bank. You can see ICICI Bank. ICICI Bank has closed above 900.Maximum calls are open interest at 900.Closing above that indicates that there will be short covering in the stock. If you look at the longer term chart, you can see that there are weekly breakouts.
There is a good formation. If we look at ITIC, I will show you TCS.TCS is on support. fTCS chart will look like NASDAQ. It is trying to bounce from NASDAQ. It should come up to 3400-3500.You can do your analysis like this. You can understand what to do, which stocks to trade, and what view to take.