This is a put option of 1700, this was your trade, you messaged me around 3.11 pm and after that the market has fallen further. I hope you must have got a very good profit. You have given a live too. Yes, I have given a live, I will show you. You gave exactly this trade, my logic was different, my logic was price action.
We will take the put option of 3900-200, which is getting 60rupees.And its stop loss will be 20 rupees and the target will be 120rupees.That is, there is a correction in the market and the monthly is expiring, on top of that, a very good profit booking is coming. So we are keeping its target at 120 and the stop loss is 30, we have to take it at 60.
So you are saying this 49200, right? Yes, sir, this is 49200.49200, it is running now, 49100 is at 135 spot level, take it at 60 and… It has increased while speaking, now it is 85-90. Okay, it has gone hard, so will you enter now or let it come little, then take the right level. If we have to do it here, if it is left, then we should target39100, which is getting at 30 rupees.
We are taking 0-0 trade, because there are 45 minutes left, so unwinding can come very fast. So let’s take 39100 attempt here at 30 rupees, we will keep its stop loss at 0 and target at 70. Okay, so take 49100 because in the last few minutes it has decreased rapidly. Sensex and Nifty have both gone to the red mark.
Bankruptcy is still in green, but both the other indexes have come down to red, this is for you. Dow futures were above 200 points, 150 are left. No special fall, Dow futures are at 50 points, but in our market, because it is the day of expiry, if it is good than 3 days, then there is a little profit book. So this production was, Mr. Pushkar, it was recommended at 39100at 30-32, and if you see its price, it went from 160 to 170, that is, the thing of 30 rupees has become 170.
So you see that in options you can earn a multi-fold return. If you catch it with the right direction, with the right data, then the thing of 30 rupees can be 170-180 in half an hour. In fact, the 39200 that I gave at 60 rupees, that went to around250-300.And you also in fact, the 17700 put option that you traded, the20-25 rupee one, that also went to 180 rupees.
So in options, if we trade properly, then a very good appreciation and return can be made in capital. Sir, now I would like to tell myself first, that basically Idol not trade regularly, until I see very beautiful opportunities for trading. So we had a conversation yesterday morning, and that is why I told you today specially that let’s connect again at 4.15.
Because yesterday, the analysis you gave about the global market, about Nasdaq, and you told that in the coming time, we can see a fall in Nifty. I also did not expect so soon that what you said yesterday, it will happen today. I thought that at least the expiry will be over, it can happen after that. But yes, today I was also looking at the price action.
So, if you see the chart pattern, I will show you now, the head and shoulder pattern that was made, after that I thought that there can be a fall from here faster, and then there was a trade. So this was the logic, the second was the logic of the global market, the third was that at that time, the PCR also started changing.
So I traded on top of these multiple logics. So what was your viewpoint about the overall market today? And like you also did the prediction yesterday, so you had the expectation that it will start happening so soon? See, the analysis that we did yesterday, I thought it should be in September expiry.
And in fact, the roll overs that happened today to September expiry, after that I was hoping that there could be a move down. You also gave a little late expectation, not fast expectation. Because the market was already in a good bull phase, so I had an expectation that the expiry could be around 17700 or 17750.
In fact, today when the market came down midway, we bought call around 17650.And after that the market went up to 17735-17736, that is, from where we bought the call of Nifty, from there Nifty went up by 75 points. In fact, we also bought calls of Bank Nifty and Bank Nifty went up by 250 points from there.
Going up 250 points on the day of expiry means that your call has already doubled. It has already doubled. I was seeing that you traded both calls and puts and made a profit. See, we were able to book some profit in calls, some we had to take out as a break even, because of greed we were sitting that we will get a big profit.
And the move came down very fast, so we had put up a trailing stop loss break even. So we had booked a profit in Nifty. By chance, our call had doubled in Bank Nifty, but we were able to take it out as a break even. So we did not get a profit in Bank Nifty.
But overall, like the TV, the put option you just saw, I gave that, so again there were double profits. So overall, those who did proper risk management, they must have made a profit. Those who did not do risk management, they may have had a flattop slightly negative. But there was a lot of volatility and I felt that after expiry, there should be a fall in the market.
Still, after 2 pm, after 2.30 pm, there was a fall in the market. And in the coming time, we should keep a cautious view. Because the analysis we did of the world market, Wax and Indian market, and today there were roll overs, so we will see how the rollovers have happened. If they are short roll overs, then most likely, in the September series, we can fall towards Rest. 17,300 and Rest. 17,000.
So sir, now 2-3 questions come, I will ask you one by one. First, today we saw that Nifty fell, but in that sector, which has fallen the most, according to me, that IT sector has fallen. And because Nasdaq is also going weak, so we should avoid buying in IT as per my analysis. So because IT was very weak, many people trade in IT stocks.
So first of all, how important is sector analysis before we start the trading and how can they do it? See, I will guide you 2-3 points here and this will be a very useful trick. To trade in IT, the most important thing is to keep an eye on Nasdaq. And like we wrote a blog yesterday, we focused on Nasdaq.
Nasdaq has 100 shares; Nasdaq is made up of 100 shares. And if you analyze Nasdaq, like Nifty has 50 shares, if you see Sensex, it has 30 shares. Similarly, Nasdaq has 100 shares and the weightage of IT stocks is more. If you take out the entire weightage, then it is around 65-70%of IT and the rest is others.
IT has Apple, Amazon, all these are related to IT, that is the weightage of the stocks. Now if you are tracking Nasdaq properly, if Nasdaq is weak, then we have observed in the Indian market that IT stocks become weak. And if Nasdaq is strong, that is, Nasdaq is rallying up, then IT stocks rally very well.
Like August expiry, you see, there was a very good rally from start to end in August. There was a rally of around 700-800 points in Nifty. The correction has been coming for 4-5 days. So you will see that IT did a very good rally, but the Nasdaq has been correcting for 4-5 days, so there is a fall in IT as well.
So we should study this, if we are IT favorites, if we trade-in IT, then we have a positive correlation of Nasdaq vs Indianite stock. That is, if Nasdaq increases, IT stocks will increase, if Nasdaq falls, IT stocks will fall. So we keep this point in mind. And secondly, we keep tracking the relative strength ranking sectors, which is in Auto Trend.
It is a very good tool. I will tell you how we should use this tool. Can you see my screen of Auto Trend? Yes, sir. See, it is on the homepage. Yes, it is on the homepage. People already have this software, but they don’t know the complete overview of it.
So I would like to guide people step by step about the complete Auto Trend software. So now you are on the homepage, after that you can show. See, here comes the sector strength ranking. This basically compares Nifty vs various sectors. If you compare Nifty with IT, Nifty with Bank Nifty, then which one is better?
Which sector is the strongest and which sector is the weakest This is called Relative Strength Ranking In today’s data, IT is the weakest in 15 minutest is the weakest in 30 minutes, IT is the weakest in 60 minutes, IT is the weakest in daily and IT is the weakest in weekly
This means that we should not buy IT stocks When the market falls, you can buy put options in IT Like TCS, Infosys, Wipro are Indian IT stocks If there is a little weakness in the market, you can trade input options
This is the closing data, I will show you yesterday’s data Yesterday also, we were getting similar signals in IT Because today, IT stocks have fallen a lot, if you see, the major selling has come from IT stocks So, I will take you to our telegram channel will show you the morning chat In the morning, we produced an analysis In that analysis, we discussed about IT stocks The data you are seeing is basically
This is a 9.03 publish and this is the relative strength ranking of the IT sector in yesterday’s closing, we are seeing that IT stocks are weak There is a learning publish here When Nasdaq 100 is strong, moving up, trade the IT stocks on the buy side When Nasdaq is weak and going down, buy put option of the IT stocks This was published at 9.06am
So, basically, the sector strength ranking, not only IT stocks If the market is going up, the market leadership comes from banking and financial stocks So, if the banking index is at the top, you can assume that banking will take the leadership And you can trade in Nifty or in the banking stocks
Sometimes, the major weightage of Nifty is of financials and the next weightage is of ITive you add IT and finance, Nifty becomes 60-70%If both the indexes come at the top, IT and bank, if both comet 1-2 ranking It means that the clear cut will be fast because the two main pairs of Nifty IT and banking are both very strong,
so Nifty is ready to run But according to the current analysis, we are saying that It’s at the bottom and banking is at the tops, what will be the result of this? Banking sitting at the top does not mean that the bank is strong We are comparing the bank with Nifty, so the bank is falling less in comparison to Nifty Here,
we are comparing the relative strength Here, it indicates that IT is weaker in comparison to Nifty and Nifty is weaker in comparison to bank Because we are doing relative strength ranking Bank Nifty is in rank 3, it does not mean that it is strong It means that if Nifty falls by 2%, then bank Nifty can fall by 1.5%Whereas, IT stocks can fall by 2.5%
So, when the market feels that it is weak, we will sort the Bitstocks and buy put options And when the world market feels strong and the overall scenarios positive, then we can play fast in the sector that is at thetas, this is the sector strength ranking, which is live data If there is strength in a sector, then we can catch it live
In fact, the next question in mind can also be that which is the weakest in ITive I ask you a question, which is the weakest in IT, which will you say? I will not take it randomly There is a way to do it, we have given all the sectors here When I click on IT, all the stocks in IT have their ranking Suppose Infosys and TCS are very active in F&O, so Infosys is in 13th position and TCS is in 14th position
These are the two stocks where you can buy put options Otherwise, if you go to mid-cap IT, then it is Emphasis But if you go to front line and large cap IT, then Infosys ants are coming at lower positions in all time frames So, by looking at this, you get an idea that today is Nasdaq week, IT week, and TCS week in Its, we can buy put options If you want to go more in-depth, then click on Tso, all the indicators will open up, 1 to 9 indicators
You can see that all are red and downs, by looking at this, you can initiate the trades, this is how we do sector analysis And by doing sector analysis, you can decide which sector you should buy or sell And overall, looking at Nasdaq and other world markets, I think we should avoid IT stocks as they can fall
So, sir, what is your view on Bank Nifty? What do you think, in the coming days, where will Bank Nifty go? Look, there have been roll overs, and I think, because I haven’t studied the data of all the roll overs
But by looking at the data of roll overs, I can understand that these can be short side roll overs And there is a lot of selling from the top level And the roll overs have been comparatively less, compared to the average roll overs
As of now, the data I have seen, I will study more If the roll overs are less, it means that your buying interest is not there in the next month Because this month of August, was the month of long roll overs And if the long positions, the buy positions, have not gone to the next month Meaning, it has gone down, it means that the buying positions have not carried forward at this rate Meaning, in the range of 17600-17700,
the buy positions are not carrying forwards, these are the signs of caution And I feel that there can be some correction in Bank Nifty Because Bank Nifty has already come up with a rally of 3000 points And the Nasdaq and the world market are also near resistance
So, I feel that there should be profit booking in the September expiry And most likely, Nifty should be at 17000And the Bank Nifty, as I have just opened the chart, you can see Bank Nifty is at the top, at around 39000There has been some correction from the top, but we have not seen much correction in Bank Nifty If we look at the current month Fibonacci retracement, meaning the recent rise retracement
So, in Bank Nifty, at least 23% retracement, approximately at38000Meaning, correction of 1000 points in Bank Nifty, most likely Correction of 1000-1500 points can come in the September expiry So, the view is a bit cautious According to you, the correction will be of 1800 points am afraid to say 1800 points, because there are a lot of 1800points
So, I have assumed that there will be a correction of 1000-1200points Then we will make a blog again and review what is the scenario ahead But now, we can see some weekly reversals And the data of rollovers is also going to the negative sides,
if you look at the retracement, at least 23.6% means a correction of 1800 points If 1700-1800 points are here, then 300-400 points are in Nifty We are assuming that 1700-300 points, here it is 1200 points
So, a correction scenario is being made So, for the upcoming few weeks, you are saying that there is no speed in the market Yes, the market of Sell on Rise can expire in September When you say these words, I would like people to note that Sir has said sell on rise If the rise is happening, then it can be trapped somewhere
Like I thought, it is possible to do it today Like I explain with today’s example, today the market came to sell on rise That is, the big players never sell at the bottom Normally, they sell on rise We saw the Nifty graph Yes, or when big players buy, they buy on dips, according to me, the expiry of September will be sell on rise That is, selling will come on bounce
So, if you get bounce, you don’t have to be trapped in the call You have to find a selling opportunity Sir, you have said a very important thing that you don’t have to be trapped Sir, please open Nifty once,
I just wanted to discuss one more thing just wanted to tell people that if you can make the time frame of 15 minutes or half an hour Then it will be better for today See, this is today’s Nifty graph And in fact, today we were trading Pushkarji, we saw this green candle
This candle is made at 12 o’clock, we bought a call on its low And we booked a profit of Nifty around high But you will see Bank Nifty, this line is around low We made a bullish strategy, 70-80 points We have exited the breakeven level. But ultimately this is the chart of today.
We were getting a profit of 50% but we could not book a profit. This was the move today and it has been a volatile expiry. We are seeing this in Bank Nifty. At the last moment, there was a selling of 500 points in Bank Nifty. And in Nifty, there is a selling of 17 points. You can see the selling from 17 points to 230.
The last falling is 17 points to 520.This is the trend of today. It is important to note that the buying and selling of the last hour is done by professional players and not by retailers. If there is a buying in the last hour, it is a genuine buying. If there is a selling in the last hour, it is a delivery selling. It should be taken as a genuine buying.
If there is a selling in the last hour, it means that someone is selling. This is also a negative sign. I wanted to tell you the same thing. That’s why I said let’s open the graph. My point was that if you look at the market, I think you said this too. Retailers open the market and professionals close the market.
Retailers are opening and professionals are closing the market. This is an emotional opening. We see SGX, 10 news. Opening is always emotional and closing is always genuine and led by professional players.
Closing is more important than the opening of a market. Absolutely sir. I hope people got a viewpoint today. There was not much excitement today because overall if Nifty is going down, it affects our portfolio too.
We are making some profit by trading. But if I talk about myself, there are many investors, people have investments in mutual funds, people have investments through index. Ultimately, if the index goes down, the overall portfolio goes down.
But being a professional, you can tap the opportunities. If you understand the view of the market, the concepts are clear, then you can make money continuously. You can make money wherever the market goes. At least we can save our loss. When we know that the ITO stocks can fall, we can make many strategies in our portfolio.
Covered call writing, selling stocks and taking it down, hedging from put. We can increase our safety in many ways. We know that there is going to be a little turbulence on the road ahead, so we can take care. Absolutely sir. If we get opportunities to trade, especially today, we can grab those opportunities and make money.
Overall, you will make money and leave the market. The purpose of getting you to meet Nitin was that yesterday sir gave you a caution. Today, those people who traded in calls and did not maintain the risk to reward ratio, did not maintain the stop loss, so definitely they must have suffered a loss. Overall, it is important to understand a concept and for that Nitin was there.
Thank you so much Nitin for giving time. We will keep asking you questions. Today you gave your viewpoint that Nifty can be corrected up to 300 points, Mag nifty can be corrected up to 1200 points.